I'm a Pundit Too

Friday, March 7, 2008

Has The Obama Momentum Stalled?

Has the tide of momentum officially turned in favor of Senator Hillary Clinton, or was “Super Tuesday, The Sequel” an aberration? Since the 5th of February when Senator Obama won the caucus in Alaska, he had won 12 straight states, before Clinton was able to win Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island. Obama still enjoys a comfortable delegate lead, but if Clinton has swung the pendulum back in her favor, it will be impossible for Clinton or Obama to make it to the convention with enough delegates to claim the nomination.

With a primary race this close, and the likelihood of not having a clear nominee heading into the convention, the rumors of Clinton and Obama being on the same ticket. Anything is possible in the current state of politics, but I don’t believe that will ever happen.

First of all, I don’t believe that Hillary Clinton will ever agree to be a Vice Presidential candidate. Her entire drive has been towards the Oval Office, she will not take the chance of being tied politically to a president that she has no control over. If Obama is elected with her as Vice President, and events turn for the worse, she could be tied to the administration that caused the problems. She will not take that chance.

With the race tightening and more than a month until the contest in Pennsylvania, the political attacks and rhetoric will be ratcheted up to a fever pitch. The attacks started before Texas with the ad of a phone ringing at 3 in the morning. The message was that Obama was not ready to make the hard decisions that inevitably a President must make. An Obama aide resigned this week after her comments in The Scotsman made headlines here in the U.S.. She called Senator Clinton a monster and stated that Clinton would stoop to the lowest levels to try to win the nomination. Will either candidate want to associate with each other after this campaign turns really nasty?

The next few weeks will be extremely entertaining. The trial of Tony Rezko will bring an entirely new dimension of scrutiny to the Obama campaign. Tony Rezko has been an Obama friend for 17 years and a political fundraiser for him. He is on trial for corruption for taking city money to rehab apartment buildings and then not fulfilling his obligations. Obama will face increasing questions about his relationship with Rezko and his role in some of Rezko’s deals. This trial represents a ripe opportunity for the Clinton campaign to exploit politically. Of course Clinton has to tread lightly, with her ties to Norman Hsu, Whitewater, Travel office firings, Rose Law firm billing records, and the many other scandals of the 1990’s.

On a final note, the super delegates will be even more important than ever by the time the convention convenes. They will potentially decide who the Democratic nominee will be. Florida and Michigan may also come into play. You may recall that the delegates from those 2 states will not be seated at the convention. The Democratic National Committee decided that their delegates will not count due to the states moving their primary elections forward. Senator Clinton won both of those states and has already started to suggest that the voice of the people should not be silenced. This has been the most entertaining election season of my life, and has the potential to become the nastiest of a generation.

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