I'm a Pundit Too

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Most Electable or Most Qualified

Will Conservatives nominate a candidate who can beat the Democratic nominee? Or will we nominate the best person for the job, who ends up letting Hillary into the White House.

I'm not going to go deep into who is the best person for the job, because I just don't know right now. But I do have some theories as to who will do what against whomever. Who can beat the current Democratic front runners? Thompson, Rudy, Mitt, McCain, Ron Paul?

Let's first take a look at Rasmussen. They have not only the primary races, but have also put together some head-to-head polls, pitting certain Republicans against certain Democrats.

First we will look at Ron Paul. He pretty much loses big against Hillary and against Obama, which of course is due to some big media, corporate empire conspiracy. I'm certain that Alex Jones has all the answers at his web site where you can also find out that 9-11 was an inside job and the V-Tech killings were a CIA brain washing experiment. He gets less that 35% against both candidates.

McCain is neck and neck with Hillary, only 2 percentage points separating them. Hillary and Obama are both well ahead of Mitt, 51% to 40%. McCain could give the Democrats a run, but in the end I think he loses, and there is no way he is going to get the nod after the immigration foul up. Mitt is popular, but not that popular.

Fred Thompson still has not announced, yet he is only 3 points shy of Hillary right now. Would making it official give him a boost? Will waiting it out just a bit longer help or hinder? I have no freaking clue. He is the politician, which means he has a bit more experience at getting elected, so I'll let him figure that out. I think that if he did get the nod, he would slap Hillary or Obama silly at every debate. Not only does he have a commanding voice, but he knows the words to use.

Giuliani is the only guy beating Hillary right now in the head-to-head. This is considered a strange thing given the fact that the right doesn't like his stance on, well, every single social issue. He is great on certain issues such as crime and national defense. Not so good on things like abortion. I think that if he assures conservatives that he will install good judges, he can get around that issue to some extent, but abortion is one of the biggest issues he is fighting. He is also not trusted by conservatives when it comes to gay issues. I personally don't get half of that, but us conservatives are very religious and this is a big deal. On the other side, Democrats are against gay marriage also, so what is the real effect.

Rudy is running very high mostly because he is America's Mayor. He is now being criticized for missteps after 9-11. But he did display a great deal of courage and leadership. He misspoke about how much time he spent at ground zero, but he was there getting dirty and doing his job.

So let's break this down. Hillary Clinton is going to be the democratic nominee. I have no doubts at all. She is polling well ahead of Obama and Edwards. She has been forgiven by most of the anti-war left for her vote, and many have forgotten half of the things that she has said and done that would make most people exclude her altogether. That is one advantage of being a Democrat, the fact that most things are only wrong if done by a Republican. If you call it a right wing conspiracy or tell everyone that Bush tricked you, you are forgiven. Carl Rove immediately stepped up attacks against her when he resigned, attacks that may continue for a while. He does this knowing that he is hated by the left because he got Bush elected and he is a demon who eats puppies and helped design the Halliburton Hurricane machine that killed all the poor black people after Katrina. What I'm trying to say is that Rove's words against Hillary give her strength with Democratic voters. Interestingly Dick Morris says that the best thing that can happen to the Republicans is a Hillary ticket because Republicans would go vote just to defeat her. Is this what Rove is thinking? Would those same people vote to defeat her if they had to vote for Giuliani to do so? Again, his stance on abortion kills him with a lot of voters.

Giuliani has appeal from both sides. There are liberals out there who support the war effort and like a guy like Rudy who has left leanings. There are conservatives who forgive his stance on abortion, and will vote for him to ensure the defeat of Hillary. Rudy could actually win New York, and if he is given the support of The Governator, may actually pick up California. California is a stretch, but the right tactics could get it done. You have to not only consider how many votes will be gained, but how many will be lost by an issue. The anti-war crowd is angry that they haven't gotten their way yet, and may be no-shows. This gives Rudy another advantage in California.

This is also going to come down to how things go in Iraq. Contrary to MSM belief, things are much better than they were BP (before Petraeus). He has lifted the morale of the troops and has turned many of the Iraqi insurgents against Al-Qaeda. They are starting to realize that they will be allowed to get into the politics once they agree to act like politicians. Even many who have opposed the war for years are agreeing that the current strategy is working. Attacks are decreasing and Iraqi forces are getting trained so that they can take over security. This is bad news for Democrats, but Hillary is good enough to take all the credit for the successes.

Another issue is the economy. Lack of regulations on the sub-prime markets has turned our economy on its head. Many will blame Bush for this despite the fact that this was done by the marketplace and there was nothing any president could have done. Hillary is adding a bail-out to her platform, which would have catastrophic ramifications down the road. If the government bails out everyone who is about to lose a house, we will have problems. But people don't think about long term issues when they are in trouble now. What is needed is controlled actions by the Federal Reserve, then Congress needs to put some regulations in place regarding the sale of Adjustable Rate Mortgages. This is what needs to be done, but as long as she is talking about a bail out, she will get support. However, this is going to be mostly cleared up by Election Day, so it won't help her as much as she may think.

I think that if Giuliani gets the nod to run against Hillary, his choice as VP is going to be vital. I know that he likes McCain, but Conservatives don't. Rudy already has the abortion issue against him, he cannot add the issue of John "Immigration Reform" McCain. This will cost him support with from the left and the right. Polls claim that the majority of Americans were against the bill, and that they want a secure border. Rudy may do well to look at the second place candidate, Fred Thompson. Fred could give him more of the Conservative base, especially in the south. This also gives him someone who economists may like. Fred is a tax reform type of guy who believes in business. This is of course assuming Rudy wins the nod instead of Fred, but I'm going with how it looks at the moment. Things may very well swing when he makes it official.

On another note, I don't like the fact that this is how I may be forced to make my decision. I don't think I really want any of the candidates to win. I disagree with all of them on too many issues, but God help us if Hillary or Obama were given the power to surrender to Iran, create socialized medicine, raise taxes on businesses and then for some damned reason, bomb Pakistan.

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